Phoenix Real Estate Market Update: November 2026
This Phoenix real estate market update for November 2026 comes with a milestone: the City of Phoenix has slipped into buyer’s market territory, and the market index is now below 100 for the first time in any reading of this report, going back two years. The Cromford Market Index fell from 105.4 to 93.1 in one month. Anything under 100 favors buyers. And in the same report, the average sale price jumped 18.6% to $722,494. One of those numbers tells you where the market is going. The other one is a statistical mirage, and I will show you why.
Here is the full Cromford Report picture for Phoenix single family detached homes, measured November 1, 2026. Sales figures reflect October closings.
Phoenix Real Estate Market Update: The November 2026 Numbers
| Metric | Nov 1, 2026 | Last month | Last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price (monthly) | $483,000 | $485,000 | $470,000 |
| Median sale price (annual) | $485,000 | $485,000 | $480,000 |
| Average sale price (monthly) | $722,494 | $609,262 | $608,743 |
| Median monthly sales price per sq ft | $283.10 | $279.70 | $275.38 |
| Median annual sales price per sq ft | $281.77 | $281.37 | $284.43 |
| Average sq ft of homes sold (monthly) | 2,088 | 1,969 | 1,997 |
| Active listings | 3,410 | 3,171 | 3,070 |
| Active listings excl. under contract | 3,087 | 2,767 | 2,657 |
| Listings under contract | 724 | 888 | 942 |
| Sales per month | 705 | 753 | 820 |
| Median days on market (sold homes) | 48 | 49 | 56 |
| Average sale price % of list | 97.10% | 97.39% | 97.13% |
| Months of supply | 4.4 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Listing success rate | 65.9% | 68.6% | 68.3% |
| Contract ratio | 23.5 | 32.1 | 35.5 |
| Cromford Supply Index | 74.2 | 68.2 | 66.8 |
| Cromford Demand Index | 69.1 | 71.8 | 70.1 |
| Cromford Market Index | 93.1 | 105.4 | 105.0 |
The Index Dropped Below 100. Here Is What That Means
The Cromford Market Index compares supply to demand. At 100, the two are in balance. Above 100, sellers have the edge. Below 100, buyers do. Phoenix sat at 123.2 on August 1. It was 105.4 on October 1. Today it is 93.1, which is also well below the 105.0 reading from this time last year and the 112.5 reading from two years ago. That is the lowest number in any column of this report.
A 93 is not a crash. It is a mildly buyer-favored market: homes still sell and prices hold, but buyers get more time and more leverage. What matters is the direction. The index has fallen about 30 points in three months, and the speed of that drop is the real story.
You might wonder whether this is just a normal fall slowdown. The year-over-year comparison answers that. Same date last year, same season, the index was 105.0 and the contract ratio was 35.5. This year it is 93.1 and 23.5. The seasons did not change. The market did.
The Average Price Jump Is a Mirage
The average sale price on October closings came in at $722,494, up from $609,262 the month before. That is an 18.6% jump, and someone will post it as proof that prices are surging.
Look at the rows around it. The median sale price went the other way, slipping from $485,000 to $483,000. The median price per square foot rose only 1.2%, from $279.70 to $283.10. If home values had really jumped 18%, the median and the price per square foot would have jumped with them.
What actually happened is a mix shift at the top. The average size of a home that sold rose to 2,088 square feet from 1,969, a 6.0% jump. Total dollar volume rose to $509 million from $459 million even though 48 fewer homes closed. Had the average price stayed at last month’s level, October’s 705 sales would have added up to about $430 million. The extra $80 million came from a heavier slice of large, expensive homes closing in the same month. Averages get pulled by big sales; medians do not.
The numbers that describe actual home values are the annual ones, and they are calm. The annual median sale price is $485,000, the same as last month and last quarter, and up 1.0% from $480,000 a year ago. The annual median price per square foot is $281.77, essentially unchanged from last month and down 0.9% from $284.43 a year ago. Homes selling over the past year are a little bigger on average, 2,012 square feet versus 1,995, so buyers are paying about the same total price and getting slightly more house. Like for like, Phoenix values are flat with a very slight lean down.
What Is Actually Changing: Supply Up, Contracts Down
Last month I wrote that supply was coming back. In October it kept coming, and this time buyers did not keep pace.
- Active listings rose to 3,410, up 7.5% from 3,171 a month ago and 11.1% from 3,070 a year ago. That is the highest count in any column of this report, including two years ago.
- Active listings not already under contract rose to 3,087, up 16.2% from a year ago.
- Months of supply hit 4.4, up from 3.7 last month, 3.2 last year and 2.7 last quarter.
- The Cromford Supply Index climbed to 74.2 from 68.2 last month and 66.8 last year.
The bigger shift was on the contract side. Listings under contract fell to 724 from 888 a month ago, an 18.5% drop in thirty days, and they are down 23.1% from 942 a year ago. Pending listings fell to 401 from 484. Sales per month dropped to 705 from 753 last month and 820 last year, a 14.0% year-over-year decline in the sales rate.
The contract ratio tells the same story in one number. It measures how much of the available inventory buyers are locking up, and it fell from 32.1 to 23.5 in a month. A year ago it was 35.5. Two years ago it was 41.3.
Here is the nuance most people will miss. The Cromford Demand Index is 69.1, only 1.4% below last year’s 70.1. Buyers have not vanished. The Supply Index, on the other hand, is up 11.1% from a year ago. This shift is mostly about more homes competing for roughly the same pool of buyers. That matters, because a supply-driven buyer’s market tends to show up in days on market and negotiation long before it shows up in prices.
There is also an early warning in the price data. The median price per square foot on homes currently under contract dipped to $284.28 from $287.69 last month. Those are next month’s closings. It is a small move, 1.2%, but it is the first place price softness would appear.
What Still Works: Well Priced Homes Sell
Median days on market for sold homes is 48, about the same as last month and faster than the 56 days of a year ago. The median time to first contract is 28 days, up from 25 last month but still quicker than 31 a year ago. Homes that are priced and presented correctly are still getting contracts in about a month.
The warning sign is the listing success rate, the share of listings that actually end in a sale. It fell to 65.9% from 68.6% last month and 68.3% last year. That is the lowest in the report. Roughly one in three listings is now ending in a cancellation or expiration instead of a closing. And the average sale price as a percentage of list slipped to 97.10% from 97.39%.
What the Phoenix Real Estate Market Update Means for Sellers
If you are selling this winter, you are competing with more homes than at any point in the last two years, and buyers know it. The good news is that prices have not broken. The challenge is that buyers will not overpay for a house that is priced for last spring.
The number I would focus on is the gap between asking and closing. The median price per square foot of active listings in Phoenix is $292.32. The median price per square foot of homes that actually sold in October is $283.10. That is a $9.22 per square foot gap. On a home of about 2,088 square feet, the average size that sold, it works out to roughly $19,000 between what sellers are asking and what buyers are paying. Active listing prices per square foot are already down from $300.97 a year ago, so sellers are adjusting. Do it before you list, not after.
With a third of listings failing to sell, your launch matters more than ever. A home that comes out at the right number gets a contract in about four weeks. A home that comes out high collects price reductions, and in a market with 4.4 months of supply, buyers read a price-cut history as permission to offer low.
Start with a real valuation built on comparable sales from your part of Phoenix in the last 60 to 90 days. See CMA vs. appraisal to understand how that differs from what a lender orders, and read how to price your home right in 2026 before you pick a number. The Phoenix home selling checklist covers how to get the house ready so it competes on condition, not just on price.
What the Phoenix Real Estate Market Update Means for Buyers
Buyers have the most room of any reading in this report. There are 3,087 homes for sale that are not already under contract, 4.4 months of supply, and a contract ratio that has dropped by a third since summer. Sellers are accepting 97.10% of list on average.
Use it. Seller-paid closing costs, rate buydowns, repairs after inspection, and flexible closing dates are all realistic asks right now, especially on homes that have been listed longer than the 48 day median.
Two cautions. First, values are flat, not falling. The annual median is $485,000 and up 1.0% from last year, so do not expect a 10% discount just because the index crossed 100. Your leverage is mostly in terms, not headline price. Second, the best homes still go under contract in under a month. If you find the right one, waiting for a price drop is a gamble. The holidays usually thin out the competition, and the best time to buy or sell in Phoenix breaks down how that shifts through the year.
The Bottom Line
Phoenix in November 2026 has crossed from balanced into a mild buyer’s market. The Cromford Market Index fell from 105.4 to 93.1 in one month, with supply up 11.1% from a year ago and listings under contract down 23.1%. The 18.6% jump in the average price is a mix effect from larger, pricier homes closing; the median slipped and the annual median is flat at $485,000.
For sellers, pricing and presentation decide whether you land in the two thirds of listings that sell. For buyers, it is the best negotiating window in two years, with values still holding.
Curious what your specific home is worth in this market? Get a free home valuation for your Phoenix home, or call Robbie Holycross directly at (602) 935-6959.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Phoenix a buyer’s market in November 2026?
Yes, mildly. It is the first reading below 100 in this report, which goes back two years. The Cromford Market Index for City of Phoenix single family detached homes fell to 93.1 on November 1, 2026, down from 105.4 a month earlier and 105.0 a year ago. A reading of 100 is a balanced market, so anything below it favors buyers. Months of supply rose to 4.4 and the contract ratio fell to 23.5. It is a mild buyer’s market, not a collapse, and well priced homes are still selling.
Did Phoenix home prices go up in October 2026?
No. The average sale price jumped 18.6% to $722,494, but that came from a heavier mix of larger, higher-end homes closing in the month. The median sale price actually slipped to $483,000 from $485,000, and the median price per square foot rose only 1.2%. The annual median sale price is $485,000, the same as last month and up 1.0% from a year ago, while the annual median price per square foot of $281.77 is down 0.9% year over year. Values are flat.
How many homes are for sale in Phoenix right now?
As of November 1, 2026, there were 3,410 active single family detached listings in the City of Phoenix, up 7.5% from 3,171 a month earlier and 11.1% from 3,070 a year ago. Of those, 3,087 were not already under contract, which is 16.2% more than a year ago. That is the most inventory of any reading in the report, going back two years.
How long does it take to sell a house in Phoenix right now?
The median Phoenix home that sold in October 2026 spent 48 days on market, about the same as the 49 days a month earlier and faster than the 56 days a year ago. The median time to first contract rose to 28 days from 25 a month earlier. Homes that are priced right still sell in about a month, but fewer listings are getting there: the listing success rate fell to 65.9%.
How much below asking price are Phoenix homes selling for?
Phoenix homes closed at an average of 97.10% of list price as of November 1, 2026, down from 97.39% a month earlier and almost identical to 97.13% a year ago. On a $500,000 list price that is roughly a $14,500 average gap. Discounts have widened slightly, but they are not steep.
