Phoenix Real Estate Market Update: October 2026
This Phoenix real estate market update for October 2026 has two numbers that point in opposite directions, and only one of them matters. The median sale price inside the City of Phoenix jumped $24,505 in a single month. At the same time, the Cromford Market Index dropped almost 11 points, from 115.8 to 104.9. That is a big move for a single month, and it puts Phoenix a hair above a perfectly balanced market. If you read the price headline and think the market bounced back, you have it backwards.
Here is the full picture from the Cromford Report for Phoenix single family detached homes, with data measured October 1, 2026.
Phoenix Real Estate Market Update: The October 2026 Numbers
| Metric | Oct 1, 2026 | Last month | Last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price (monthly) | $484,500 | $459,995 | $500,500 |
| Median sale price (annual) | $485,000 | $485,000 | $480,750 |
| Average sale price (monthly) | $603,494 | $599,210 | $636,484 |
| Median monthly sales price per sq ft | $278.98 | $276.23 | $280.87 |
| Median annual sales price per sq ft | $281.42 | $281.57 | $284.96 |
| Average sq ft of homes sold (monthly) | 1,964 | 1,957 | 2,059 |
| Active listings | 3,175 | 2,925 | 3,002 |
| Active listings excl. under contract | 2,771 | 2,521 | 2,543 |
| Sales per month | 688 | 734 | 784 |
| Median days on market (sold homes) | 49 | 46 | 57 |
| Average sale price % of list | 97.36% | 97.81% | 97.20% |
| Months of supply | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Listing success rate | 68.9% | 68.6% | 66.2% |
| Contract ratio | 32.1 | 36.3 | 37.4 |
| Cromford Supply Index | 68.2 | 64.3 | 64.8 |
| Cromford Demand Index | 71.5 | 74.5 | 68.7 |
| Cromford Market Index | 104.9 | 115.8 | 106.0 |
The Median Price Jump Is Noise, Not a Rebound
The monthly median sale price came in at $484,500, up from $459,995 a month ago. That is a 5.3% gain in a single month, and I fully expect to see it quoted as proof that Phoenix prices are recovering.
Now look at the rows right next to it. The average sale price rose only 0.7%, from $599,210 to $603,494. The median price per square foot on monthly sales rose only 1.0%, from $276.23 to $278.98. And the average size of the homes that closed barely changed, 1,957 square feet last month versus 1,964 this month. If values had genuinely risen 5%, the average price and the price per square foot would have moved with the median. They did not.
Last month I explained that the big median drop was mostly a mix shift toward smaller homes. This month the home sizes did not change much, so that is not the explanation. What happened is simpler: with fewer than 700 sales in the month, the median is just a noisy number. Last month’s $459,995 was unusually soft, and this month it snapped back near the $485,000 annual median.
The numbers that actually describe home values are the annual ones. The annual median sale price is $485,000. It was $485,000 last month and $485,000 last quarter too. Year over year it is up 0.9% from $480,750.
There is one more layer worth understanding. The annual median price is up 0.9%, but the annual median price per square foot is down 1.2%, from $284.96 to $281.42. How can both be true? Because the homes selling over the past year are slightly larger on average, 2,005 square feet versus 1,994 a year ago. Buyers are paying about the same total price and getting a little more house for it. On a like for like basis, Phoenix values have drifted down roughly 1% over the past year. Not a crash, not a boom. Flat with a slight lean.
What Is Actually Changing: Supply Is Coming Back
Last month I wrote that shrinking supply was the only thing holding the market index above 100, and that if sellers came back in the fall the balance would change quickly. That is exactly what happened in September.
- Active listings rose to 3,175 from 2,925 a month ago, an 8.5% jump in one month. They are now 5.8% above last year’s 3,002.
- Active listings not already under contract rose to 2,771, up 9.0% from a year ago.
- The Cromford Supply Index rose to 68.2 from 64.3 last month and 64.8 last year.
- Months of supply hit 4.0, up from 3.4 last month and 3.2 last year. That is the highest reading of any column in this report, including two years ago.
- Days of inventory reached 100, up from 90 last month.
At the same time, buyers pulled back. Sales per month fell to 688 from 734 last month and 784 a year ago, a 12.2% decline in the annual sales rate. Listings under contract are 889, down 6.6% from last year. The Cromford Demand Index slipped to 71.5 from 74.5.
Here is the detail most people will miss: demand is actually higher than it was a year ago, 71.5 versus 68.7. Buyers have not disappeared. What changed is that supply rose and demand dipped in the same month, and when both move against sellers at once the market index falls fast. That is how you get a drop from 115.8 to 104.9 in thirty days.
The contract ratio, which measures how much of the inventory is getting locked up by buyers, fell to 32.1 from 36.3 last month and 42.9 last quarter. Fewer listings are going under contract relative to what is available, which is another way of saying buyers have more choices.
The Good News: Well Priced Homes Still Move Fast
This is not a market where nothing sells. It is a market where the right homes sell and the wrong ones sit, and the data shows that split clearly.
The median time to first contract dropped to 25 days, down from 30 last month and 34 a year ago. The listing success rate is 68.9%, up from 66.2% a year ago. Median days on market for sold homes is 49, well below the 57 days of a year ago. So the homes that are priced and presented correctly are getting contracts faster than they did last fall.
The slip is in negotiation. The average sale price as a percentage of list fell to 97.36% from 97.81% last month. Buyers are pushing back a bit harder at the table, which is what you would expect with four months of supply.
What the Phoenix Real Estate Market Update Means for Sellers
The gap between asking and closing is the number I would focus on. The median price per square foot of active listings in Phoenix is $293.06. The median price per square foot of homes that actually sold last month is $278.98. That is a $14.08 per square foot gap. On a home of about 1,964 square feet, the average size that sold, that works out to roughly $27,600 between what sellers are hoping for and what buyers are paying.
The good news is that active listing prices per square foot are coming down, from $299.28 a year ago to $293.06 today, so sellers are adjusting. The ones who adjust before they list do better than the ones who adjust after 60 days on market.
With 3,175 active listings, you are competing with more homes than in any of the snapshots in this report, going back two years. Buyers can afford to skip the house that needs work or the house that is priced for spring. Your first two weeks on the market are still your best two weeks. A home that launches at the right number gets a contract in about 25 days. A home that launches high gets a price reduction and a stale listing history.
Start with a real valuation built on comparable sales from your part of Phoenix in the last 60 to 90 days. If you want to know how that differs from what a lender will order, see CMA vs. appraisal, and read how to price your home right in 2026 before you pick a number. When you are ready to get the house market ready, the Phoenix home selling checklist lays out the order of operations.
What the Phoenix Real Estate Market Update Means for Buyers
Buyers have more room right now than at any reading in this report, going back two years. You have 2,771 homes for sale that are not already under contract, four months of supply, and a contract ratio that has fallen by a quarter since summer. Sellers are accepting 97.36% of list on average and that number is trending down.
Practically, that means you can negotiate. Closing cost help, rate buydowns, repairs after inspection, and flexible timelines are all realistic asks, especially on homes that have been sitting past the 49 day median.
What it does not mean is that the best homes are sitting around. Well priced listings are going under contract in a median of 25 days, faster than a year ago. If you find the right home, the leverage is in the terms, not necessarily in waiting a month to see if the price drops. The seasonal calendar matters too, and the best time to buy or sell in Phoenix breaks down how competition shifts through the year.
The Bottom Line
Phoenix in October 2026 has moved from a mild seller’s market to the edge of balanced. The Cromford Market Index fell from 115.8 to 104.9 in one month and now sits below where it was a year ago. The headline median jump is noise; annual values are flat at $485,000, and on a per square foot basis they have drifted down about 1% over the year.
The cause is supply returning, up 8.5% in a single month, while sales slowed 12.2% year over year. For sellers, that rewards accurate pricing more than at any point this year. For buyers, it is a genuine negotiating window, as long as you are realistic that the best homes still go fast.
Curious what your specific home is worth in this market? Get a free home valuation for your Phoenix home, or call Robbie Holycross directly at (602) 935-6959.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Phoenix housing market slowing down in October 2026?
Yes, noticeably. The Cromford Market Index for City of Phoenix single family detached homes fell from 115.8 on September 1 to 104.9 on October 1, 2026, and it is now slightly below the 106.0 reading from a year ago. Active listings rose to 3,175 while sales fell to 688 for the month, down 12.2% from last year. Phoenix is still technically a seller’s market, but only barely.
Did Phoenix home prices go up in September 2026?
Not in any meaningful way. The monthly median sale price rose from $459,995 to $484,500, but the average sale price only rose 0.7% and the median price per square foot only rose 1.0%. The annual median sale price is $485,000, the same as last month, and the annual median price per square foot of $281.42 is down 1.2% from a year ago. Values are flat to slightly softer, not rising.
Is it a buyer’s market or a seller’s market in Phoenix right now?
It is close to balanced. The Cromford Market Index is 104.9, and 100 is a perfectly balanced market. Months of supply has climbed to 4.0, the highest of any reading in the past two years of this report, and the contract ratio has fallen to 32.1 from 37.4 a year ago. Buyers have more choice and more negotiating room than they have had in a long time, while correctly priced homes still sell.
How long does it take to sell a house in Phoenix right now?
The median home that sold in Phoenix in September 2026 spent 49 days on market, up from 46 last month but down from 57 a year ago. The median time to first contract is 25 days, faster than the 34 days a year ago. Homes priced right are getting contracts quickly; homes priced high are the ones sitting and stretching the averages.
How much below asking price are Phoenix homes selling for?
Phoenix homes closed at an average of 97.36% of list price as of October 1, 2026, down from 97.81% last month and up slightly from 97.20% a year ago. On a $500,000 list price that is roughly a $13,000 average gap. Buyers are negotiating harder than they were a month ago, but well priced homes are not selling at steep discounts.
