Why People Are Moving to Arizona in 2026 (And Why Some Leave)

I get this question in some form almost every week. Someone calls me from Seattle or Sacramento or suburban Chicago and asks whether Arizona is really as good as it looks from the outside. And then, usually a little sheepishly, they ask the second question: if it is so great, why do I keep reading that people are leaving?

Both things are true at the same time. Arizona is still one of the top four states in the country for net domestic migration, and the Phoenix metro is still one of the most-searched relocation destinations in America. At the same time, growth here is measurably cooling, roughly 199,700 households moved out of the state in the most recent full year of data, and Arizonans are the ones talking loudest about heat, insurance bills and water.

I am not going to sell you a postcard. I have lived and worked in this market long enough to know that the people who thrive here are the ones who moved in with clear eyes. So here is the honest version: the real numbers on who is moving to Arizona in 2026, why they come, what they save, and the specific reasons a meaningful slice of them turn around and leave. If you are already deep in planning, my Phoenix relocation guide and Phoenix cost of living breakdown go a level deeper on logistics and budgets.

The short answer on why people are moving to Arizona

People move to Arizona for four things, roughly in this order: housing they can actually afford relative to where they came from, a 2.5% flat income tax, 300-plus days of sun, and jobs that did not exist here ten years ago. People leave Arizona for three: summer heat that is getting longer, the cost of owning a home here (insurance, cooling, HOA), and a quiet unease about water.

Everything below is the detail behind those two sentences.

Who is actually moving here — the migration numbers

Start with the state-level picture, because the headlines get this wrong in both directions. Arizona added 67,394 people in 2025 to reach 7,623,818 residents, according to the ASU Morrison Institute’s 2026 State of Housing in Arizona report. Of that, migration accounted for 59,326 people and natural change (births minus deaths) for only 7,649. Read that again: Arizona’s growth is now almost entirely people moving in. Births barely move the needle anymore, and the University of Arizona’s Economic and Business Research Center expects the state to hit natural decrease — more deaths than births each year — sometime in the mid-2030s.

That makes migration the whole ballgame for housing demand, which is why I watch these numbers more closely than almost anything else.

Where they come from (2024, latest full IRS/Census flows)	Moved to AZ	Arizonans who moved there	Net
California	52,383	28,174	+24,209
Washington	17,601	~9,600	+8,000 (approx.)
Texas	10,306	13,503	−3,197
Colorado	10,284	9,762	+522
Illinois	~21,000 (household-level est.)	—	strongly positive

A few things jump out of that table that almost nobody mentions.

• California is not the whole story, but it is most of it. Roughly one in four people moving to Arizona from another state comes from California. About 28,000 Arizonans go the other direction each year, so the net gain is real but smaller than the raw inflow suggests. If that is your move, I wrote a full comparison of what changes and what doesn’t when you move from California to Arizona.
• The Pacific Northwest is the fastest-growing feeder. Washington sends more people to Arizona than Texas and Colorado combined.
• We lose to Texas. Arizona sends more people to Texas than Texas sends here. That is usually job relocations and buyers who found they could get more house in DFW or Houston.
• Midwest money is quietly significant. Illinois and Minnesota are top-five origin states, and those are overwhelmingly retirement and second-home buyers, not job movers.

At the metro level, Redfin’s Q1 2026 migration report still had Phoenix among the top ten net-inflow metros in the country, and Placer.ai called Phoenix the top-performing large metro in 2025 for net movement, with most of its inflow coming from out of state.

The part the boosters skip: growth is cooling, fast

Here is the honest counterweight. The pandemic-era surge is over. During the boom, the Phoenix metro was adding well over 100,000 residents a year. In the most recent Census estimate year, net domestic migration to Maricopa County alone was 941 people — while Pinal County pulled in 21,315, per Axios Phoenix’s read of the 2025 Census estimates.

Maricopa still grows overall, because international migration and births make up the difference. But the domestic flow has largely shifted outward — from Maricopa into Pinal County, Buckeye, Maricopa city, San Tan Valley, Casa Grande. People are still coming to the Valley; they are increasingly landing at its edges because that is where they can afford a new build.

Measure	Boom-era pace	2026 reality	Source
AZ population growth rate	~2.0%/yr (1995–2025 avg)	1.2% in 2026, forecast 0.8%/yr over 30 yrs	U of A EBRC / azeconomy.org
AZ net domestic migration rank	#4 nationally	Still #4	StorageCafe / Census
Maricopa net domestic migration	57,471 (2023–24 total growth)	941 (latest estimate yr)	Census via Axios Phoenix
AZ job growth	~1.9%/yr	+0.7% YoY; forecast 0.7% in 2026	Eller Forecasting Project
Phoenix MSA unemployment	3.8% (Apr 2026)	4.9% (Jun 2026)	BLS / Eller

Why does this matter to you as a buyer or seller? Because “everybody is moving to Phoenix” was the argument used to justify 2021-style bidding wars. That argument is gone. Today’s market is balanced-to-buyer-friendly, which is exactly what my 2026 Phoenix market analysis walks through.

Reason #1 people move here: the housing math still works (from most places)

For a Californian, Washingtonian or New Yorker, Phoenix is a discount. For a buyer from Ohio, it is not. That is the whole trick to understanding our market.

As of late August 2026, Maricopa County’s median single-family price held steady at $510,000, and Pinal County’s was $382,000, per Phoenix REALTORS data reported by the Arizona Digital Free Press. Median days on market in Maricopa County sat at 66 in July 2026, up from 59 in May, per FRED/Realtor.com inventory data. Around half of active listings have taken a price cut.

Metric	Phoenix metro	California (statewide/LA)	Notes
Median home value / price	~$450K city, $510K Maricopa County	~$734,700 statewide; ~$900K LA	Tax Foundation / Census / Phoenix REALTORS
State income tax	2.5% flat	Up to 13.3% (14.4% effective above $1M)	Lowest flat rate in the nation
Effective property tax rate	~0.48–0.62%	~0.70–0.73%	Prop 13 protects long-time CA owners, not new buyers
Combined sales tax (Phoenix)	~8.6%	~9.03% avg	AZ 5.6% + city 2.5% + county 0.5%
Cost of living index	~107.6	~140.5	U.S. average = 100
Median asking rent (metro)	$1,433 (Jun 2026, −4.2% YoY)	~$2,700 1BR LA	Realtor.com June 2026 rent report

The tax piece is the one people underestimate. A household earning $120,000 saves roughly $4,200 a year in state income tax by moving from California to Arizona; at $400,000 the gap runs past $26,000. That is a mortgage payment’s worth of money for a lot of families, every single year.

And unlike a lot of Sun Belt markets, our rents are actually falling. Phoenix delivered an enormous wave of new apartments, and the metro’s median asking rent is down more than 4% year over year with roughly 17,000 units still under construction, per Yardi Matrix. If you want to land here, rent for a year and learn the Valley before you buy, 2026 is a good year to do exactly that.

Reason #2: jobs that did not exist here a decade ago

Arizona used to be a growth economy that ran on growth itself — homebuilding, mortgages, tourism, retirees. That is changing. TSMC’s Phoenix campus commitment now totals about $265 billion after the July 2026 expansion announcement, and Intel’s Fab 52 in Chandler is fully operational on its 18A process. I broke the full supply-chain picture down in how TSMC and Intel are reshaping Phoenix real estate.

Be careful how you read this, though. Semiconductor construction is enormous but the direct headcount is modest relative to a metro of five million, and it is concentrated in north Phoenix, Chandler and increasingly Casa Grande. Meanwhile statewide job growth is running about 0.7% and Phoenix-area unemployment climbed from 3.8% in April to 4.9% in June 2026. Do not move here on the assumption that the job market will catch you. Move here with a job, a remote role, or six months of runway.

Reason #3: the weather is genuinely a lifestyle, eight months a year

From October through May, Arizona is close to unbeatable. Golf in January. Hiking in February. Patio dinners in March. No shoveling, no ice, no seasonal-affective winter. This is not a small thing — it is the single most common reason my out-of-state clients give when I ask what finally made them pull the trigger.

The snowbird economy is built on exactly this. Winter visitors arrive in November and leave in March, which is why January is consistently the biggest month for luxury and 55+ listings hitting the MLS. If retirement is your driver, my guide to the best 55+ communities in Phoenix and Arizona covers the specific communities and what dues actually buy.

Now the honest part: why people leave Arizona

The heat is getting longer, not just hotter

This is reason number one, and anyone who tells you otherwise has not talked to enough transplants in their third summer. In 2026, APS set an all-time peak demand record of 9,053 megawatts on July 24, roughly 5% above the previous record, and SRP set one the same week, per AZ Central.

The human cost is real and I am not going to dress it up. Maricopa County recorded 430 heat-related deaths in 2025 — down from 608 in 2024 and a record 645 in 2023 — and as of August 22, 2026 the county had 113 confirmed heat deaths with another 584 under investigation, per the Maricopa County heat surveillance reports.

For a homeowner, heat also shows up as a bill and a maintenance schedule. Arizonans are projected to pay about $1,060 for electricity between June and September 2026, per Phoenix New Times — nearly double the lowest state. Average Phoenix-area cooling costs are already about $120/year higher than the same house would have paid in 2018.

Heat-related cost	Typical range	Notes
Summer electric bill (APS, 2,000 sq ft)	$250–$370/mo	Annual $2,800–$3,400
Summer electric bill (SRP, same home)	$190–$280/mo	Annual $2,200–$2,800
June–Sept electricity total (AZ avg)	~$1,060	2nd highest in the U.S.
HVAC replacement	$6,300–$18,800	10–15 year lifespan in this climate, not 20
Pool maintenance	$100–$200/mo + chemicals	Plus heating if you want winter swimming
Exterior paint / roof underlayment	$5,800–$12,900 / $16K–$36K	UV and monsoon accelerate both

The cost of owning here has outrun the cost of buying here

This is the shift I have watched happen in real time. Sale prices have been flat for two years — Maricopa County’s median has barely moved — but the carrying cost of a home has not been flat at all. Arizona home insurance rates rose 71% over six years, the sixth-largest increase in the country, with the state average now around $2,225 a year and Phoenix-specific quotes commonly landing between $2,300 and $2,800, per LendingTree data reported by KJZZ.

Add HOA dues (roughly 48% of Arizona listings carry them, averaging about $200/month for a single-family home), rising utility rates, and pool and landscape upkeep, and you can see why affordability sentiment has soured. A 2026 Consumer Federation of America survey found 43% of Arizona voters — and 69% of residents aged 20–29 — say cost of living has made them more likely to consider leaving.

If you are buying here, budget for ownership, not just the payment. My post on the hidden costs of buying a home in Arizona and the Arizona HOA rules every buyer should know exist precisely because this is where transplants get surprised.

Water — the fear is bigger than the near-term risk, but the risk is not zero

Nobody asks me about property taxes as often as they ask about water. Here is my straight read. The Colorado River supplies roughly 35% of Phoenix’s water, and it is over-allocated in a two-decade drought with the interstate guidelines up for renegotiation. But Phoenix-area cities hold layered supplies — Salt and Verde river water, CAP allocations, stored groundwater, reclaimed water — and can lean on one when another is short. As KJZZ put it in August 2026, the cuts will not make Phoenix taps go dry, but the backup plan will cost billions — and that bill lands on your water rates.

Where water genuinely changes real estate is new construction on the fringe. Since 2023, Arizona has not issued Certificates of Assured Water Supply based on local groundwater for new subdivisions in the Phoenix AMA. That is why builders pushed into areas served by designated providers, and why the legal fight matters: on June 8, 2026, Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Scott Blaney struck down ADWR’s alternative designation rule (ADAWS) for demanding more water than statute requires. The framework is unsettled right now.

Practical translation: if you are buying an existing home inside Phoenix, Scottsdale, Gilbert, Chandler, Mesa or Tempe, your water is as secure as anything in the Southwest. If you are buying a new build on raw desert in an unincorporated area, ask exactly who the water provider is and whether they hold a Designation of Assured Water Supply. I go deeper in my write-up on Arizona’s water supply and what it means for Phoenix homeowners.

The other reasons — sprawl, politics, and the third summer

Three more I hear regularly and will not pretend away:

• Commutes and sprawl. The affordable new construction is 35–50 minutes from the job centers. Buyers who chase price to Buckeye or San Tan Valley sometimes sell in two years because the drive broke them.
• Politics and community fit. Arizona is a genuine swing state, which means whatever your politics, roughly half your neighbors disagree. Some people find that healthy; some find it exhausting.
• Retirees are diversifying. Arizona is no longer the automatic retirement default; the Carolinas, Tennessee and Florida are pulling boomers who once would have picked Sun City. Heat and insurance are the reasons cited most often.

Who Arizona is a great fit for — and who it isn’t

Arizona is likely a great fit if…	Arizona may frustrate you if…
You are coming from CA, WA, NY, IL or MN and the housing/tax math is a step down in cost	You are coming from the Midwest South or Texas, where housing is comparable or cheaper
You have a remote job or a role already lined up	You are relocating first and job-hunting second in a 4.9% unemployment metro
You genuinely love dry heat and can plan life around summer	You need four seasons, or you have small kids, elderly parents, or a heat-sensitive health condition
You are buying an existing home in an established, city-served municipality	You are buying raw-land new construction on the fringe without checking the water provider
You will budget $500–$800/month for utilities, insurance, HOA and pool	Your budget stops at the mortgage payment

If you are weighing specific cities, start with my head-to-head on Phoenix vs. Scottsdale, then the neighborhood guides for Tempe, Queen Creek and Gilbert. And if price point is your anchor, what $500K gets you across the Valley is the most useful reality check I publish.

How to test-drive Arizona before you commit

1. Visit in July, not February. Everybody loves this place in spring. Come for four days in mid-summer and see how you feel about walking to your car at 4 p.m.
2. Rent for 6–12 months first. With metro rents down 4%+ and heavy concessions, the cost of a one-year lease is the cheapest insurance policy available against buying in the wrong part of a 5-million-person metro.
3. Pull real utility history, not averages. Ask the seller or your agent for 12 months of actual APS or SRP bills on the specific house. Two identical-looking homes can differ by $150/month based on insulation, window orientation and HVAC age.
4. Get an insurance quote before you write an offer. Roof age and claim history drive premiums here more than most buyers expect.
5. Ask who provides the water. Especially for anything built in the last three years on the metro’s edge.
6. Do the tax math with your own numbers. The 2.5% flat rate is a big deal at higher incomes and a small one at $60,000.

My take after all of this

Arizona is not the frictionless boomtown that 2021 marketing made it out to be, and it is not the collapsing desert that headlines about heat and water suggest. It is a maturing large metro with a real economy, flat prices, more inventory than we have had in years, high carrying costs, and a summer that asks something of you.

The people who love it here almost always share one trait: they came in with accurate expectations. They knew the electric bill. They knew the third summer is the hard one. They knew where the water comes from. Then they got eight glorious months a year, kept an extra few thousand dollars of income, and never scraped a windshield again.

That is the trade. It is a good one for a lot of people, and a bad one for some. My job is to tell you honestly which one you are before you spend $500,000 finding out.

Frequently asked questions about moving to Arizona

Thinking about a move to Arizona? Let’s talk straight.

I would rather tell you Arizona is the wrong fit than sell you a house you regret in three summers. Send me your budget, your timeline and where you are moving from, and I will give you the honest read — the neighborhoods that actually match your life, the real carrying costs, and whether you should rent first. Reach out here and let’s figure it out.

— Robbie Holycross, RJH Homes Team